By Poll Results, 5 Lessons Maharashtra has for 2019 General Election: The Lok Sabha elections pretty close now, less than a year away, the by-poll results that came out recently on May 31, Thursday, were a reminder for both the opposition and the one in power.
These results showed that the opposition parties have finally found a way to defeat BJP in the northern states especially in Uttar Pradesh while the opposition is still struggling in Maharashtra to come up with a plan to stop the BJP’s victory run.
The by-poll results that came out a few days ago to the Lok Sabha seats of Palghar and Bhandara-Gondiya showed that Shiv Sena who is still not sure about supporting BJP in the Lok Sabha Elections can spoil BJP’s plans against the Opposition on a minimum of thirty seats. 48 members of parliament are sent from Maharashtra.
the fight was very bitter against BJP for Shiv Sena it was a close battle, Shiv Sena secured the second position and it also eats up all the anti-BJP votes and pushed Congress down to the fifth spot, Congress was even below CP(M).
Vote bank for Congress is shrinking on a regular manner, which saw support for the party erode among the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Muslims is a matter of concern not just for the grand old party, but also the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). what will be the meaning of this trend when the entire country will be voting for the Election of the central government in 2019.
Here’s a list of things the By-polls can tell us
The opposition has united in The Northern states including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This can cause BJP to lose a lot of votes even where they have strong bondings with the local people and community.
The results of Bhandara-Gondiya similarly showed even with NCP putting up a weak candidate and BJP’s stronghold on the Lok Sabha constituency BJP won five out of six Assembly seats in Bhandara-Gondiya in the 2014 election NCP managed to win the seat like no other party fielded a candidate under a tacit understanding. The Congress and NCP were together in this decision and Shiv Sena decided not to spoil the prospects of NCP Candidate.
Cause of Defeat for Shiv Sena
Palghar polls were an exam for Shiv Sena and they did the best they could do, all their strategies were correct that included a decision to field BJP MP Chintaman Wanga’s son, Shrinivas Wanga, from the seat after Chintamani’s death. Shiv Sena was able to receive people’s sympathy that belongs to the Scheduled Tribe caste and received votes as Wanga was a Scheduled Tribe leader.
shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray did work very hard to get to the second position fighting against the powerful Election machinery of BJP. However, Shiv Sena could only get 28,000 seats less than they needed to meet their target. The Shiv Sena has to think about its strategy again as all votes that split between the Opposition parties in the multi-corner contest in Palghar got BJP to emerge victorious even by a slight Margin.
North Indian voters supporting BJP
A huge amount of voters from northern India in Mumbai, especially in Thane region where Shiv Sena holds strong can be a huge reason for concern for the opposition parties.
The magic of Chief minister Yogi Aditynatha may not be working in Uttar Pradesh due to the opposition United, but it looks working very well in the region of Maharashtra. The only star leader campaigner requested by the Maharashtra unit of BJP was Yogi Adityanath and he looks to enjoy his considerable hold in the region. This can be a major headache for Congress, especially in Mumbai.
Congress Losing its support even from the Scheduled Tribes
Palghar used to be a Congress seat at a time from where the party used to kick off its general election campaigns, but now the condition of the party is very sad in the region, pa arty has now come down to the fifth spot in its own region. Even if the position of BJP was to reduce the strength of the seat and weaken it, it may not prove of any benefit for the Congress Because the losses of the BJP are going to translate into the profits of others parties.
Arithmetic is worrying
A united opposition taking on BJP is clearly hinted by NCP leader Praful Patel but they are not sure if Shiv Sena will be the part of the united opposition as the Shiv Sena is still part of the government and supporting BJP.
The Palghar results can give Shiv Sena an idea about its next strategy and let it think if remaining a part of the government will be in the interest of the party from the point of view of the big battle coming up in 2019.
The party will have to improve their strategies and arithmetic with the Congress and NCP or they will have to reduce and solve the differences between them and BJP so that they can avoid a situation like Palghar. If the Shiv Sena contests alone in the Election the prospects of NCP and Congress are spoiled especially in the Mumbai, Thane, north Maharashtra and Marathwada.